We are 100 days away from Election Day on November 5th, 2024. Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points according to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill’s average of 85 polls. Harris has gained on Trump since a disastrous debate sparked calls for the President Joe Biden to step aside. RealClearPolling meanwhile shows Trump leading by 1.7%. Both averages indicate Harris is performing better against Trump than Biden was, even before Harris announces her VP pick next week and the Democratic Convention later in August.
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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on YouTube, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
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