I’m about to say things you don’t want to hear. But I’m a prognosticator, not a cheerleader (even though I voted for Trump three times). So here goes.
The Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. They’re ahead by eight points in the generic Democrat/Republican poll.
We can assign numbers to this. Let’s look at the prediction markets rather than the polls, since the polls are wrong so often. The markets say there’s a 92% chance the Democrats will win at least a one-person majority in the House. In fact, the markets say they will gain about 20 seats.
