The Great Fertility Collapse with Jesús Fernández-Villaverde

For the first time in human history, we’re not having enough children to keep the world’s population from falling. And fertility is collapsing fastest not in rich nations but in places like Colombia, Thailand, and Guatemala, upending decades of economic wisdom. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde tells Russ Roberts, EconTalk host and Hoover visiting fellow, that falling fertility has accelerated sharply over the past decade and defies easy explanation. Declining religiosity, smartphones and social media, soaring housing costs, and changing gender norms are popular, but unconfirmed, theories. Fernández-Villaverde offers his own speculative answer: that modern life makes a third child costly and childlessness easy, but admits the puzzle is unsolved. What’s clearer is why it matters: as retirees become the dominant voting bloc, spending on pensions and health care crowds out roads, schools, and defense. Shrinking economies make public debt harder to service, and fewer births mean fewer scientists, artists, and inventors. Listen to the episode: https://www.econtalk.org/ __________ 🔔 Subscribe for more discussions: @HooverInstitution 👍 Like and share this video! 🌐 Follow the Hoover Institution on social media: • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HooverInstStanford • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/hoover-institution-at-stanford-university • Instagram: https://instagram.com/hooverinstitution • X: https://www.twitter.com/HooverInst The opinions expressed in this video are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University. © 2026 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University.