The midterms are here. Many people make confident predictions. But whom should we trust?
We’ve got the “experts” on tv.
Polls–there are lots of them.
Professional election forecasters.
And finally, the best predictors: people who bet.
The bettors are more accurate than anybody else, maybe because they put their own money on the line.
electionbettingodds.com, a website I created with Maxim Lott, averages prediction market data from betting websites around the world. That’s the best information we have about the future.
