“I think it’s largely true because it drove the gasoline up… but at the same time if I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again, because long-term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
That was President Donald Trump’s reaction to Congressional Republicans’ crushing losses in the 2026 midterm elections that could see Democrats reach 56 seats in the Senate and 260 seats in the House, according to a Polymarket projection.
He was agreeing with Vice President J.D. Vance who wrote in an X post: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
Quite simply, before the U.S. and Israel launched their renewed attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices were very low, hitting $56 a barrel on Jan. 7, and after the war escalated hit $114 a barrel by April 7. As of this writing, it is still trading at $88 a barrel.
Similarly, gasoline prices were before the war was $2.70 a gallon and now it’s about $4.15 a gallon. It’s worth noting that before the post-Covid inflation it was $2.21 a gallon in Jan. 2021, skyrocketing in 2021 and 2022 especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Before we the war escalated in February, the American people were on track to finally break even on post-Covid inflation (which began with the checks in 2020 let’s be honest) by the end of 2026, according to an Americans for Limited Government Foundation analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation and average weekly earnings data.
Now it’s out to 2028 and counting.
Going to Iran absolutely, unquestionably prolonged the inflation.
It was the Iran war. Even the President and Vice President say so. Iran definitely had it coming. But high oil prices are nearly undefeated at the polls: 1976, 1980, 1992, 2008 and 2024 so there were obvious economic and political consequences.
Complicating matters, Trump was already upside down on approval by March.
Wars are not so great either. There hasn’t been a popular war ever. 1942, 1950, 1966, 1990 and 2006 were all political midterm losses for the White House incumbent party.
Coming into the year, the President absolutely knew what the score was, warning the House Republican Member Retreat on January 6 that Congressional losses were imminent: “[T]hey say that when you win the presidency, you lose the midterm.” He was right.
The reason is because coming into the year, the fact is President Trump was already upside down on approval, with Gallup reporting it at just 36 percent at the beginning of the year.
That usually means greater losses in Congressional midterms, according to an Americans for Limited Government analysis of midterm elections dating back to 1906.
Lower approval also shows greater losses in the dataset. In 1946, Harry Truman was registering just 33 percent approval as Democrats lost 54 House seats. In 1966, Lyndon Johnson had 44 percent approval and lost 47 House seats. In 1974, Gerald Ford only had 47 percent approval and Republicans lost 48 House seats amid the fallout from Watergate. In 1994, Bill Clinton had 46 percent approval and Democrats lost 54 House Seats. In 2006, George W. Bush had 38 percent approval and Republicans lost 30 House seats. In 2010, Barack Obama had a 45 percent approval rating, and Democrats lost 63 House Seats, and in 2014, he had a 40 percent approval rating and lost another 13 seats. And in 2018, Donald Trump had a 40 percent approval rating and Republicans lost 42 House seats.
The approval or lack thereof was absolutely a red flag headed into 2026 and the midterms — let alone escalating the half-a-century war with Iran, leading to its predictable rise in oil and gas prices that ultimately exacted a political toll.
Republicans weren’t demoralized they were complacent. Another contributing factor were Republican “influencers” spending the last two months of the campaign telling everyone the polls forecasting imminent catastrophe were wrong. Well, they were wrong. They understated Democrats who trounced Republicans in the worst House and Senate losses in a generation.
Political parties ignore the economy and inflation at their own peril. Every election is a referendum on the incumbents. Every. One. Of. Them.
Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
The post Trump And Vance Are Right. The Iran War And High Oil Prices Cost GOP The Midterms. appeared first on Daily Torch.
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