As of 2026, humanity is likely below replacement fertility. As far as we can tell, this has never happened before in our history as a species, not during wars, not during pandemics. Population keeps growing for another 30 years or so through momentum, and then it falls: our
reading puts the peak at roughly 9 billion around 2056.
• The UN WPP 2024 “Medium Variant” says 10.29 billion in 2084. I will explain why I disagree.
• China already records 3.3 million more deaths than births a year.
• But the real surprise is where the fall is happening.
To read the paper, click here: https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Demographics.pdf
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