What looked like an alarming rise of left-wing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan U.S. Senate race may not materialize on Election Day, putting the seat that Democrats have held since 1979 in play this November.
Just over two weeks out from Election Day, congressional ballot data shows a narrow race, and new polling reveals steep demographic declines for the El-Sayed compared to the governor’s race in 2022.
The congressional ballot data remains close, with El-Sayed leading former GOP congressman Mike Rogers by an average of 2.7 points in the latest Real Clear Polling average.
Comparing voter intentions for El-Sayed with the way Michigan swing voters divided their votes in the 2022 governor’s race, since this Senate seat was not up for election in 2022, reveals steep declines in support for the Democrat.
The latest Quantus Insights survey of 762 likely voters, conducted Oct. 5–6, shows El-Sayed holding a razor-thin one-point lead over Rogers, with El-Sayed leading Rogers 47.6 percent to 46.5 percent. This result places the Michigan Senate race in a statistical tie.
What is more, there have been steep double-digit declines in support for El-Sayed among key groups of voters compared to how these voters divided their support in the gubernatorial race four years ago. Women, Black voters, college-educated voters, and suburbanites are all willing to support El-Sayed by less than they were willing to support Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Whitmer won women by 26 points, 62 percent to 36 percent in 2022. In the Quantus survey from Oct. 6, that gap has narrowed significantly, with women intending to support El-Sayed by ten points, 52 percent to 42 percent. The gender gap in favor of the Democrat persists but has more than halved since 2022.
For men, the race was much closer in 2022, with men narrowly supporting political commentator Tudor Dixon against Whitmer by three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. Men are much less willing to support El-Sayed than they were Whitmer, planning to vote for Rogers by a nine-point margin, 52 percent to 43 percent.
There has been a similar shift among Black voters, with Black voters shifting toward the GOP in the 2026 Senate race compared to how they voted in 2022.
El-Sayed captures the overwhelming majority of Black voters in the Quantus survey, leading Rogers by 64 points, 79 percent to 15 percent, but that lead for the Democrat has shrunk since 2022.
Whitmer won the Black vote by 88 points in 2022, 94 percent to 6 percent. With Mike Rogers polling at 15 percent among Black voters, the vote for Republicans has more than doubled. The Democrat advantage has shrunk from an 88-point advantage for Whitmer to a 64-point advantage for El-Sayed — a worrying drop-off in enthusiasm for Democrats.
Another massive shift compared to 2022 is among college-educated voters. El-Sayed captures the college-educated vote by eleven points, 53 percent to 42 percent, but that lead is down significantly compared to 2022.
Whitmer won college-educated voters by a full 25 points, 62 percent to 37 percent four years ago. This amounts to shaving off fourteen points from the Democratic lead.
The vote share among independents is nearly identical, with independents supporting Whitmer by thirteen points (55 percent to 42 percent) compared to planning to support El-Sayed by fourteen points (53 percent to 39 percent).
Suburbanites have flipped since 2022. Whitmer won suburbanites cleanly by nine points, 54 percent to 45 percent. Now, suburban voters are planning to narrowly support Rogers over El-Sayed, according to the Quantus survey. Suburbanites plan to vote for Rogers by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
While the Quantus survey is smaller than some other surveys, a close race is a finding larger surveys show, too. An Insider Advantage survey from Oct. 9–10 of 1,200 voters found El-Sayed ahead by two points.
Democrats may have overplayed their hand by nominating El-Sayed. El-Sayed says he is not a socialist, but he is running on a platform of Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), wealth taxes, and public ownership of artificial intelligence (AI) companies. A September poll found Michigan voters say El-Sayed is “too liberal” by six points, while saying Mike Rogers is “about right” by three points. The play could work for Democrats, or it could deliver a Senate seat the party has coveted since 1979 into Republican control.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
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