Americans are planning to borrow for holiday purchases before Halloween has arrived, with many already anticipating repayment trouble, a survey released Oct. 13 found.
Nearly two in five holiday spenders plan to use buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, according to NerdWallet’s survey. Among those prospective users, 38% expect they will be unable to make payments in full and on time, raising concerns about shoppers taking on obligations they already doubt they can meet.
The financing arrangements let customers receive purchases upfront while spreading payments across installments. PayPal, for example, offers eligible shoppers four interest-free payments through its Pay in 4 product, alongside a separate monthly financing option, the company said.
Online holiday purchases made through BNPL are projected to reach a record $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6% from 2025, according to Adobe’s forecast. The estimate measures purchases financed through the services, rather than overdue debt.
Shoppers are also planning cuts. Americans purchasing gifts expect to spend an average of $879, down 21% from the $1,107 anticipated in 2025, NerdWallet found. Average planned spending across gifts, travel and other holiday expenses totals $2,525.
The repayment figures reflect consumers’ expectations ahead of the season, rather than recorded defaults. The Harris Poll surveyed 2,060 U.S. adults Sept. 8–10 on NerdWallet’s behalf.
Existing borrowers have already encountered difficulties. Twenty-six percent of BNPL users reported paying late at least once in 2025, while 17% were charged extra for paying late, according to an August Federal Reserve analysis. Eleven percent said a BNPL payment triggered an overdraft or insufficient-funds fee.
The services also reach beyond discretionary shopping. One in five users financed groceries or food delivery in 2025, the Fed found. Use was more common among people with limited emergency savings, and growth has been concentrated among consumers facing constraints on their access to credit and available cash.
Still, borrowers frequently choose installment payments for convenience. Spreading payments and convenience were the two most commonly cited reasons for using BNPL, according to the Fed’s analysis.
Payment providers see an opportunity in holiday demand. Forty-two percent of consumers said BNPL availability would make them more likely to purchase something, according to a PayPal-commissioned Morning Consult survey of 2,005 adults conducted Sept. 2–4. Fifty-seven percent said the option would help them manage the cost of gifts for several people.
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